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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.41+2.87vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.72+1.30vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+3.00vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University1.47+2.94vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz1.69+0.55vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+0.04vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.82+1.54vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.71-1.73vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.42+0.92vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+1.47vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.86-2.50vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.99-3.74vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.86+0.78vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-0.91-0.47vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-1.41-0.47vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.09-2.24vs Predicted
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17Santa Clara University-0.59-4.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.87University of Hawaii2.4118.4%1st Place
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3.3Stanford University2.7224.3%1st Place
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6.0University of California at Santa Barbara1.678.6%1st Place
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6.94San Diego State University1.476.0%1st Place
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5.55University of California at Santa Cruz1.6910.4%1st Place
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6.04California Poly Maritime Academy1.928.0%1st Place
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8.54California State University Channel Islands0.823.4%1st Place
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6.27University of Southern California1.717.0%1st Place
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9.92University of California at San Diego0.422.2%1st Place
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11.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.271.8%1st Place
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8.5University of California at Berkeley0.862.9%1st Place
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8.26Arizona State University0.993.6%1st Place
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13.78San Diego State University-0.860.7%1st Place
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13.53San Diego State University-0.910.5%1st Place
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14.53Arizona State University-1.410.5%1st Place
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13.76Arizona State University-1.090.5%1st Place
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12.74Santa Clara University-0.591.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Anderson | 18.4% | 17.8% | 16.0% | 14.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 24.3% | 20.1% | 16.4% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 10.4% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 2.6% |
| Carsten Zieger | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Juan Casal | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Marley Daniel | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 14.9% | 18.8% | 19.4% |
| Juan Alcala | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 15.6% | 17.4% | 16.2% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 14.5% | 18.4% | 33.5% |
| Camden Wacha | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 16.8% | 19.1% | 18.9% |
| Paul Trudell | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 15.8% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.