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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
27
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+6.85vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.92+3.09vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego1.81+6.78vs Predicted
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4California State University Monterey Bay1.63+6.65vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+3.66vs Predicted
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6Santa Clara University2.22+1.81vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine1.35+5.19vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University1.51+3.22vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California2.64-3.09vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara2.49-3.17vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara2.23-3.24vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay1.63-1.35vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay1.63-2.35vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+0.68vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley0.87-0.49vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego0.31+0.14vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis0.83-3.81vs Predicted
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19University of California at Berkeley0.92-5.07vs Predicted
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20University of California at Santa Cruz0.61-4.23vs Predicted
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21University of California at Berkeley0.38-4.16vs Predicted
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22Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-10.82vs Predicted
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23University of California at Los Angeles0.44-6.33vs Predicted
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24University of California at Santa Barbara-0.07-4.79vs Predicted
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25University of California at San Diego-0.36-5.26vs Predicted
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26Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.33-6.13vs Predicted
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27University of California at Irvine0.08-8.89vs Predicted
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28University of California at Los Angeles-0.23-8.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.85University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.1%1st Place
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5.09Stanford University2.920.1%1st Place
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9.78University of California at San Diego1.810.0%1st Place
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10.65California State University Monterey Bay1.630.0%1st Place
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8.66University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
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7.81Santa Clara University2.220.1%1st Place
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12.19University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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11.22Arizona State University1.510.0%1st Place
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5.91University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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6.83University of California at Santa Barbara2.490.1%1st Place
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7.76University of California at Santa Barbara2.230.1%1st Place
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10.65California State University Monterey Bay1.630.0%1st Place
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10.65California State University Monterey Bay1.630.0%1st Place
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14.68University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
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14.51University of California at Berkeley0.870.0%1st Place
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17.14University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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14.19University of California at Davis0.830.0%1st Place
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13.93University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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15.77University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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16.84University of California at Berkeley0.380.0%1st Place
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11.18Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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16.67University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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19.21University of California at Santa Barbara-0.070.0%1st Place
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19.74University of California at San Diego-0.360.0%1st Place
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19.87Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.330.0%1st Place
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18.11University of California at Irvine0.080.0%1st Place
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19.41University of California at Los Angeles-0.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Stokes | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Buckstaff | 14.7% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 4.7% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Wood | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 11.4% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cobi Allen | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keenan Chung | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Skeffington | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Baldassare | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike McCarthy | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexandre Mutricy | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kiersten McDonald | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Monti | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anthony Helm | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nils-Erik Rundquist | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andreas Balslev | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Heller | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Beutter | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 17.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.