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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.50+2.79vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California0.70+3.70vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy0.53+2.95vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University-0.39+6.70vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University0.53+2.02vs Predicted
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6Stanford University1.00-0.85vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-0.65vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+3.87vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.03-1.54vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-1.19+1.71vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii1.47-7.25vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.84-1.77vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-1.54+0.33vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.18-2.20vs Predicted
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15Santa Clara University-1.38-2.71vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.92-2.19vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-1.53-4.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.79University of California at Santa Barbara1.5019.8%1st Place
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5.7University of Southern California0.708.5%1st Place
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5.95California Poly Maritime Academy0.538.5%1st Place
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10.7Arizona State University-0.391.3%1st Place
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7.02San Diego State University0.536.1%1st Place
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5.15Stanford University1.0012.4%1st Place
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6.35University of California at Santa Cruz0.827.1%1st Place
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11.87Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.941.5%1st Place
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7.46University of California at San Diego0.035.1%1st Place
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11.71San Diego State University-1.192.1%1st Place
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3.75University of Hawaii1.4721.6%1st Place
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10.23University of California at Berkeley-0.841.6%1st Place
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13.33California State University Channel Islands-1.540.9%1st Place
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11.8San Diego State University-1.181.5%1st Place
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12.29Santa Clara University-1.380.8%1st Place
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13.81Arizona State University-1.920.6%1st Place
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12.09Arizona State University-1.530.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Skerrett | 19.8% | 17.2% | 17.0% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Berry | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Jennings | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ava Cornell | 12.4% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 8.3% |
| Skyler Chaffey | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Cerretti | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 7.7% |
| Arden Rathkopf | 21.6% | 17.2% | 15.2% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bianca Weber | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Brent Lin | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 15.8% | 23.7% |
| Joshua Barraza | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 7.6% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 10.2% |
| Viviane Carroll | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 16.9% | 26.5% |
| Matthew Prendiville | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.