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📊 Prediction Accuracy
34.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
26
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+3.20vs Predicted
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2Santa Clara University1.42+7.99vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz1.12+8.37vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.47+1.84vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.06+2.02vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.50-0.35vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay0.50+7.12vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine1.71+0.71vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.79+3.51vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego1.60-0.81vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.31-0.56vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay0.50+2.12vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-0.90vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara2.21-7.28vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.07-3.67vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay0.50-1.88vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles0.58-3.05vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley-0.40+0.04vs Predicted
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19University of California at Santa Cruz0.02-2.95vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-1.11+0.31vs Predicted
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21Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.95-9.28vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles-0.78-2.86vs Predicted
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23University of California at Berkeley-0.38-4.95vs Predicted
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24University of California at Irvine-0.54-5.59vs Predicted
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25University of California at San Diego0.39-10.44vs Predicted
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26-1.18-5.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.2University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.2%1st Place
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9.99Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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11.37University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
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5.84University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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7.02University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.1%1st Place
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5.65Stanford University2.500.1%1st Place
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14.12California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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8.71University of California at Irvine1.710.1%1st Place
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12.51University of California at Berkeley0.790.0%1st Place
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9.19University of California at San Diego1.600.1%1st Place
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10.44University of California at Santa Barbara1.310.0%1st Place
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14.12California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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12.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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6.72University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.1%1st Place
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11.33University of California at Santa Barbara1.070.0%1st Place
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14.12California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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13.95University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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18.04University of California at Berkeley-0.400.0%1st Place
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16.05University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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20.31Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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11.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.950.0%1st Place
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19.14University of California at Los Angeles-0.780.0%1st Place
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18.05University of California at Berkeley-0.380.0%1st Place
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18.41University of California at Irvine-0.540.0%1st Place
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14.56University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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20.59-1.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Long | 19.6% | 15.4% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 11.0% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 7.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Holly Tullo | 12.2% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Stege | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saul Rosen | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Olson | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Coumes | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Stege | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Schiff | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Leddy | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Stege | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Brown | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 18.1% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Graham Gooding | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kimberly Alcorn | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Chavkin | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 5.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Diaz | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Luu | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 19.0% | 29.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.