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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+7.61vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.73+4.39vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+7.30vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University1.55+6.92vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+1.66vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.13+2.32vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.81+2.56vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+2.90vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.71+4.40vs Predicted
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10Tulane University1.77+0.06vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.08-1.77vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.75-5.68vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.15-2.86vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.32-6.27vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin2.02-5.41vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.72-2.05vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.47-5.72vs Predicted
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18Boston College2.34-10.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.61University of California at Santa Barbara2.045.5%1st Place
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6.39Yale University2.7311.3%1st Place
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10.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.003.7%1st Place
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10.92Jacksonville University1.553.3%1st Place
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6.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.4810.8%1st Place
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8.32George Washington University2.135.2%1st Place
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9.56Old Dominion University1.814.2%1st Place
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10.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.6%1st Place
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13.4University of Vermont0.712.1%1st Place
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10.06Tulane University1.773.6%1st Place
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9.23Bowdoin College2.085.1%1st Place
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6.32Georgetown University2.7510.5%1st Place
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10.14Tufts University2.155.3%1st Place
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7.73University of Miami2.327.6%1st Place
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9.59University of Wisconsin2.024.4%1st Place
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13.95Hampton University0.722.2%1st Place
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11.28Eckerd College1.473.6%1st Place
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7.63Boston College2.347.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kayda | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Jack Egan | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Charles Carraway | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 3.6% |
| Matthew King | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% |
| Colman Schofield | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Cameron Feves | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 21.9% |
| Asher Zittrer | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% |
| Christopher Lukens | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 4.5% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Christian Spencer | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 32.5% |
| Sean Tallman | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 7.2% |
| Sophia Reineke | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.