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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.75+5.23vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.73+4.20vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont0.85+10.36vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.08+5.12vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.13+3.29vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.81+3.77vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+3.90vs Predicted
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8Tulane University1.77+2.05vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin2.02+0.68vs Predicted
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10University of Miami2.32-2.07vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.15-0.35vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-5.44vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-4.35vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College1.47-2.49vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.34-7.19vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University1.55-4.79vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-8.13vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.72-3.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.23Georgetown University2.7511.2%1st Place
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6.2Yale University2.7311.3%1st Place
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13.36University of Vermont0.851.8%1st Place
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9.12Bowdoin College2.086.1%1st Place
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8.29George Washington University2.136.3%1st Place
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9.77Old Dominion University1.814.4%1st Place
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10.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.0%1st Place
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10.05Tulane University1.774.4%1st Place
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9.68University of Wisconsin2.025.7%1st Place
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7.93University of Miami2.327.0%1st Place
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10.65Tufts University2.153.2%1st Place
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6.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.489.2%1st Place
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8.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.6%1st Place
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11.51Eckerd College1.473.2%1st Place
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7.81Boston College2.347.3%1st Place
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11.21Jacksonville University1.552.9%1st Place
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8.87University of California at Santa Barbara2.045.5%1st Place
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14.22Hampton University0.721.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 11.3% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Salvesen | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 21.0% |
| Christopher Lukens | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Cameron Feves | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% |
| Asher Zittrer | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Christian Spencer | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 9.2% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Sean Tallman | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.5% |
| Sophia Reineke | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Matthew King | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 33.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.