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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.73+5.04vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+4.30vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.34+4.51vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.13+4.06vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College1.47+5.97vs Predicted
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6Hampton University0.72+7.85vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.15+3.16vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.09+0.56vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-0.38vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.55+0.99vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.02-1.50vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.32-4.32vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.04-4.08vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.71-0.71vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.69-1.20vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-7.60vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.81-7.74vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.08-8.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.04Yale University2.7311.7%1st Place
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6.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.4811.1%1st Place
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7.51Boston College2.347.3%1st Place
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8.06George Washington University2.136.9%1st Place
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10.97Eckerd College1.473.4%1st Place
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13.85Hampton University0.721.2%1st Place
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10.16Tufts University2.153.5%1st Place
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8.56Georgetown University2.096.6%1st Place
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8.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.5%1st Place
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10.99Jacksonville University1.553.4%1st Place
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9.5University of Wisconsin2.025.0%1st Place
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7.68University of Miami2.327.7%1st Place
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8.92Tulane University2.045.7%1st Place
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13.29University of Vermont0.711.5%1st Place
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13.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.691.8%1st Place
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8.4University of California at Santa Barbara2.046.6%1st Place
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9.26Old Dominion University1.815.5%1st Place
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9.08Bowdoin College2.084.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Reineke | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Cameron Feves | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Sean Tallman | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 5.6% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 15.9% | 27.0% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.1% |
| Edward Cook | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Will Murray | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Matthew King | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% |
| Christian Spencer | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 20.1% |
| David Pearce | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 17.2% | 25.9% |
| Chris Kayda | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.