← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.81+2.42vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Naval Academy1.64+1.61vs Predicted
-
3University of Pennsylvania1.60+0.84vs Predicted
-
4Georgetown University1.45+0.01vs Predicted
-
5Old Dominion University0.95+0.08vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.66-2.25vs Predicted
-
7George Washington University1.27-2.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.8119.4%1st Place
-
3.61U. S. Naval Academy1.6417.9%1st Place
-
3.84University of Pennsylvania1.6015.6%1st Place
-
4.01Georgetown University1.4513.0%1st Place
-
5.08Old Dominion University0.956.9%1st Place
-
3.75St. Mary's College of Maryland1.6615.8%1st Place
-
4.29George Washington University1.2711.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Gleason | 19.4% | 17.8% | 17.2% | 15.6% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 6.2% |
| Caden Scheiblauer | 17.9% | 15.5% | 15.4% | 16.9% | 14.3% | 12.5% | 7.4% |
| Samuel Gavula | 15.6% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 14.4% | 13.8% | 14.7% | 11.2% |
| Joe Coyne | 13.0% | 14.3% | 14.4% | 14.8% | 16.4% | 14.6% | 12.4% |
| John Glenn | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 17.5% | 34.9% |
| Keiran James Golden | 15.8% | 16.6% | 15.6% | 14.3% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 10.4% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 11.3% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 17.4% | 17.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.