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📊 Prediction Accuracy
100.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.59+1.28vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.81+1.38vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.23+1.23vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University2.08-1.02vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.72-1.46vs Predicted
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6Wesleyan University-1.15+1.13vs Predicted
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7University of Connecticut0.19-1.25vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College-0.71-1.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.28Connecticut College2.590.4%1st Place
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3.38Brown University1.810.2%1st Place
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4.23Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.230.1%1st Place
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2.98Salve Regina University2.080.2%1st Place
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3.54University of Vermont1.720.1%1st Place
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7.13Wesleyan University-1.150.0%1st Place
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5.75University of Connecticut0.190.0%1st Place
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6.71Middlebury College-0.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellis Tonissi | 37.4% | 27.0% | 16.8% | 10.7% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Bailey | 15.2% | 17.5% | 21.0% | 20.1% | 15.7% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Robert Queisser | 8.8% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 16.4% | 25.0% | 18.2% | 6.4% | 1.0% |
| Shannon Killian | 21.1% | 21.6% | 20.5% | 18.8% | 12.2% | 4.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Mike Kanare | 12.7% | 16.5% | 20.2% | 18.9% | 20.1% | 9.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Lauren Javaly | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 10.8% | 25.1% | 54.6% |
| George Williams | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 30.7% | 25.7% | 11.3% |
| Mark Sinks | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 15.5% | 38.0% | 32.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.