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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.59+1.27vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.81+1.42vs Predicted
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3Salve Regina University2.08-0.01vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.23+0.25vs Predicted
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5Wesleyan University-1.15+2.17vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.72-2.50vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College-0.71-0.24vs Predicted
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8University of Connecticut0.19-2.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.27Connecticut College2.590.4%1st Place
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3.42Brown University1.810.1%1st Place
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2.99Salve Regina University2.080.2%1st Place
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4.25Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.230.1%1st Place
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7.17Wesleyan University-1.150.0%1st Place
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3.5University of Vermont1.720.1%1st Place
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6.76Middlebury College-0.710.0%1st Place
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5.65University of Connecticut0.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellis Tonissi | 36.8% | 26.7% | 18.1% | 11.8% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Bailey | 14.8% | 18.6% | 18.3% | 20.2% | 17.0% | 8.9% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Shannon Killian | 20.3% | 20.7% | 23.3% | 18.3% | 11.2% | 5.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Robert Queisser | 8.8% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 15.8% | 25.2% | 18.2% | 6.8% | 1.0% |
| Lauren Javaly | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 9.4% | 27.8% | 54.1% |
| Mike Kanare | 14.6% | 15.7% | 19.3% | 21.0% | 17.0% | 10.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Mark Sinks | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 13.3% | 36.3% | 36.0% |
| George Williams | 2.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 15.6% | 33.1% | 24.1% | 8.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.