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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+9.19vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.43+4.88vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.38+4.19vs Predicted
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4Fordham University3.25+3.34vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.80+0.42vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.19+5.65vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.97+1.58vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.21-0.49vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.58+4.88vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College2.29+1.56vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.45-0.22vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida3.15-3.84vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont3.41-6.32vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62-4.34vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92-2.31vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University3.49-9.39vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.63-3.20vs Predicted
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18University of Minnesota1.95-5.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.19U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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6.88Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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7.19Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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7.34Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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5.42Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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11.65University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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8.58Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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7.51Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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13.88Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.580.0%1st Place
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11.56Connecticut College2.290.0%1st Place
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10.78Yale University2.450.0%1st Place
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8.16University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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6.68University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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9.66St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.0%1st Place
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12.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.0%1st Place
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6.61Roger Williams University3.490.1%1st Place
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13.8Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
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12.41University of Minnesota1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Ellis | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 2.9% |
| Marek Zaleski | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Hans Henken | 14.5% | 13.3% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Penwell | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.5% |
| Carolyn Naughton | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Sarah Williams | 7.3% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Morgan | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 16.6% | 22.0% |
| Alexandra Romagnoli | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% |
| Eric Anderson | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Nate Jermain | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Galster | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% |
| Christine Moloney | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 13.0% |
| J. Jacob | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 15.4% | 23.9% |
| Ryan Grosch | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 12.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.