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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.43+5.63vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.80+3.33vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont3.41+3.62vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.29+6.85vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.21+2.25vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.19+5.32vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.97+1.19vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida3.15-0.61vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.58+4.58vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62-0.20vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.38-4.22vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.45-1.36vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61-3.47vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92-1.95vs Predicted
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15Fordham University3.25-7.96vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University1.96-3.66vs Predicted
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17University of Minnesota1.95-4.63vs Predicted
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18Washington College1.63-4.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.63Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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5.33Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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6.62University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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10.85Connecticut College2.290.0%1st Place
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7.25Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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11.32University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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8.19Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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7.39University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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13.58Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.580.0%1st Place
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9.8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.0%1st Place
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6.78Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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10.64Yale University2.450.0%1st Place
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9.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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12.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.0%1st Place
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7.04Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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12.34Roger Williams University1.960.0%1st Place
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12.37University of Minnesota1.950.0%1st Place
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13.27Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marek Zaleski | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Hans Henken | 10.5% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nate Jermain | 9.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alexandra Romagnoli | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% |
| Sarah Williams | 8.1% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Penwell | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| Carolyn Naughton | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Morgan | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 16.0% | 20.2% |
| Thomas Galster | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Eric Anderson | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 3.9% |
| Kayla Ellis | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% |
| Christine Moloney | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 11.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Alexander Rudkin | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 12.3% |
| Ryan Grosch | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 12.9% |
| Alexander Smith | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 19.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.