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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont3.41+5.51vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.96+10.31vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.19+8.40vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+5.32vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.25+1.87vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.44+0.23vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.38-0.55vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62+1.34vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.97-1.09vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.21-2.75vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.43-4.62vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.73+1.16vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.45-2.98vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.58-0.91vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida3.15-7.77vs Predicted
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16University of Minnesota1.95-3.84vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92-4.69vs Predicted
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18Washington College1.63-4.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.51University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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12.31Roger Williams University1.960.0%1st Place
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11.4University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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9.32U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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6.87Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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6.23Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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6.45Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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9.34St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.0%1st Place
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7.91Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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7.25Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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6.38Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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13.16Connecticut College1.730.0%1st Place
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10.02Yale University2.450.0%1st Place
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13.09Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.580.0%1st Place
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7.23University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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12.16University of Minnesota1.950.0%1st Place
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12.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.0%1st Place
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13.05Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Jermain | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Rudkin | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 9.9% |
| Patrick Penwell | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% |
| Kayla Ellis | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Axel Sly | 10.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Galster | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| Carolyn Naughton | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Sarah Williams | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Marek Zaleski | 9.8% | 11.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Rebecca Quirke | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 18.0% |
| Eric Anderson | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 2.7% |
| Andrew Morgan | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 18.9% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Grosch | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.5% |
| Christine Moloney | 2.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 12.8% | 10.8% |
| Alexander Smith | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 17.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.