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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.73+4.42vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.74+3.27vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.51+3.14vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College2.78+4.68vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.93vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.97+2.09vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin3.19-0.03vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96-0.05vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.91-0.69vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.58-0.57vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan3.02-3.12vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.63-2.82vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida2.51-3.63vs Predicted
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14Boston University3.70-8.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.42College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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5.27U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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6.14Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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8.68Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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6.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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8.09Old Dominion University2.970.1%1st Place
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6.97University of Wisconsin3.190.1%1st Place
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7.95St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.1%1st Place
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8.31Tufts University2.910.1%1st Place
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9.43Bowdoin College2.580.0%1st Place
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7.88University of Michigan3.020.1%1st Place
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9.18SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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9.37University of South Florida2.510.0%1st Place
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5.37Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Davidson | 12.2% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Mary Hall | 13.6% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Alex Post | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Robert Savoie | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.9% |
| Elliott Morrill | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.2% |
| Andrea Luna | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% |
| Michael Lee | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.2% |
| Edmund Cooper | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% |
| MaryClaire Kiernan | 6.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% |
| Kaylee Schwitzer | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 16.9% |
| Ryan Seago | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% |
| Julia Paxton | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 15.0% |
| Colleen Hartman | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 16.2% |
| Ryan Astwood | 12.3% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.