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📊 Prediction Accuracy
10.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+6.74vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+7.49vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.98+4.39vs Predicted
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4Harvard University4.17+2.49vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University3.36+5.14vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.87+5.88vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.67+5.88vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin3.31+2.44vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.58-0.20vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.56-1.06vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.89-3.35vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63-2.94vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University4.31-7.20vs Predicted
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14Boston University3.35-3.93vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53-5.96vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.00-4.64vs Predicted
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17Washington College2.29-2.83vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.95-2.55vs Predicted
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19Eckerd College2.47-5.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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7.39Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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6.49Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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10.14Salve Regina University3.360.0%1st Place
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11.88University of Rhode Island2.870.0%1st Place
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12.88Connecticut College2.670.0%1st Place
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10.44University of Wisconsin3.310.1%1st Place
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8.8Dartmouth College3.580.1%1st Place
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8.94Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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7.65Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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9.06Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.1%1st Place
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5.8Roger Williams University4.310.1%1st Place
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10.07Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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9.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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11.36SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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14.17Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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15.45University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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13.23Eckerd College2.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Daniel Liberty | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Colin Smith | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| John Stokes | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Carney | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Ryan Hughes | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% |
| Max Rollins | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 8.8% |
| Leif Evensen | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% |
| Edward Glackin | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Cam Cullman | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Eamon Glackin | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Sean Bouchard | 12.0% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matt Johnson | 5.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Ted Green | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 15.4% | 21.0% |
| Christina Johns | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 34.2% |
| Amy Baxter | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 12.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.