← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1College of Charleston3.73+4.50vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Naval Academy3.74+3.31vs Predicted
-
3Boston University3.70+2.61vs Predicted
-
4Old Dominion University2.97+4.10vs Predicted
-
5University of South Florida2.51+4.62vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.01vs Predicted
-
7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+0.82vs Predicted
-
8Bowdoin College2.90+0.25vs Predicted
-
9Eckerd College2.78-0.18vs Predicted
-
10University of Wisconsin3.19-2.60vs Predicted
-
11Georgetown University3.51-4.62vs Predicted
-
12SUNY Maritime College2.63-2.76vs Predicted
-
13Tufts University2.91-4.80vs Predicted
-
14University of Michigan3.02-6.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.5College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
-
5.31U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
-
5.61Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
-
8.1Old Dominion University2.970.0%1st Place
-
9.62University of South Florida2.510.0%1st Place
-
7.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
-
7.82St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.1%1st Place
-
8.25Bowdoin College2.900.1%1st Place
-
8.82Eckerd College2.780.1%1st Place
-
7.4University of Wisconsin3.190.1%1st Place
-
6.38Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
-
9.24SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
-
8.2Tufts University2.910.1%1st Place
-
7.73University of Michigan3.020.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Davidson | 11.1% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Mary Hall | 13.0% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Astwood | 11.5% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Andrea Luna | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% |
| Colleen Hartman | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 13.8% | 19.6% |
| Elliott Morrill | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 3.5% |
| Edmund Cooper | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% |
| Peter Edmunds | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 10.5% |
| Robert Savoie | 5.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 11.3% |
| Michael Lee | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.4% |
| Alex Post | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% |
| Julia Paxton | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 17.1% |
| MaryClaire Kiernan | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% |
| Ryan Seago | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 4.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.