Race 10A

george-warren-smith

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Noah Robitshek 5.9% 5.3% 6.7% 6.2% 6.7% 5.8% 6.5% 6.2% 8.2% 8.9% 7.2% 7.8% 8.1% 7.1% 3.5%
Thibault Antonietti 10.3% 10.5% 10.0% 10.3% 10.1% 7.7% 7.8% 7.0% 6.7% 5.6% 4.5% 4.1% 3.6% 1.2% 0.5%
Ben Rosenberg 7.8% 8.5% 7.1% 7.0% 8.0% 8.1% 7.4% 8.7% 7.8% 7.2% 6.6% 6.1% 4.2% 4.2% 1.2%
Mateo Farina 12.4% 12.1% 9.6% 10.6% 9.2% 10.3% 7.8% 7.4% 5.1% 5.2% 3.6% 3.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3%
Calvin Lamosse 4.9% 4.3% 4.2% 5.8% 5.2% 5.3% 5.1% 5.9% 7.6% 7.1% 6.5% 8.6% 11.3% 11.5% 6.6%
Dylan Ascencios 10.0% 10.3% 9.2% 8.2% 9.4% 7.8% 8.2% 7.2% 7.0% 5.7% 7.2% 3.7% 3.0% 2.3% 0.9%
Grant Gridley 9.3% 9.2% 9.7% 7.9% 8.0% 8.8% 6.9% 7.3% 6.9% 6.7% 6.2% 5.3% 4.2% 3.0% 0.6%
Thomas Styron 8.8% 8.3% 8.6% 8.6% 7.8% 8.1% 7.8% 8.1% 7.1% 7.1% 6.2% 5.3% 3.8% 3.2% 1.0%
Charlotte Costikyan 5.7% 4.9% 6.1% 5.5% 6.7% 5.9% 7.4% 6.5% 6.0% 7.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.3% 7.8% 3.5%
Patrick Mulcahy 5.5% 5.2% 6.9% 6.5% 5.1% 6.3% 6.7% 7.2% 7.4% 8.4% 9.1% 8.3% 8.0% 6.4% 3.2%
Peter Cronin 4.2% 4.5% 4.5% 5.6% 4.7% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.7% 7.5% 7.8% 9.7% 10.3% 12.2% 5.8%
Matt Hersey 2.9% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 5.8% 5.9% 7.0% 7.5% 9.1% 8.8% 10.6% 15.2% 7.0%
Sara Schumann 4.8% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0% 6.0% 6.6% 6.6% 7.1% 7.2% 7.1% 7.3% 7.8% 8.2% 8.9% 3.5%
Libby Redmond 6.7% 6.2% 6.8% 7.0% 7.8% 7.2% 8.8% 7.7% 7.0% 6.2% 7.2% 7.5% 6.8% 4.9% 2.1%
Dane Phippen 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 0.9% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% 2.9% 4.3% 6.7% 11.2% 60.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.