Race 11A

george-warren-smith

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Thomas Styron 8.5% 8.9% 8.4% 8.8% 9.0% 8.7% 7.2% 9.0% 6.5% 5.9% 5.9% 5.5% 3.5% 3.0% 1.0%
Noah Robitshek 5.6% 6.3% 5.0% 6.6% 6.4% 6.8% 7.0% 8.0% 7.5% 7.2% 7.2% 8.2% 7.0% 7.8% 3.2%
Dylan Ascencios 9.2% 10.3% 9.5% 8.9% 8.0% 8.8% 7.4% 7.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.2% 4.4% 4.2% 1.8% 0.4%
Libby Redmond 7.5% 7.2% 6.7% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3% 8.2% 6.3% 7.5% 7.7% 7.1% 7.9% 6.7% 5.0% 1.5%
Mateo Farina 13.1% 10.4% 11.7% 10.0% 9.4% 9.4% 7.5% 6.9% 6.0% 5.8% 3.6% 3.2% 1.9% 0.9% 0.1%
Sara Schumann 5.4% 5.2% 5.9% 6.9% 6.5% 6.1% 6.3% 6.6% 7.8% 9.1% 7.2% 7.2% 8.3% 8.2% 3.0%
Thibault Antonietti 9.7% 9.8% 9.9% 9.2% 8.9% 9.4% 7.5% 8.4% 7.3% 6.0% 5.0% 3.4% 3.1% 1.9% 0.5%
Charlotte Costikyan 4.9% 5.7% 6.2% 5.1% 6.0% 5.3% 7.1% 7.1% 7.0% 9.4% 8.8% 8.1% 8.4% 7.9% 2.9%
Calvin Lamosse 4.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.5% 4.9% 5.1% 6.5% 5.7% 6.5% 7.4% 7.5% 8.5% 10.8% 12.6% 6.8%
Patrick Mulcahy 5.3% 6.7% 6.3% 5.9% 6.2% 6.7% 7.3% 6.3% 7.5% 8.0% 8.7% 8.4% 8.0% 6.1% 2.8%
Grant Gridley 8.2% 8.7% 7.4% 9.4% 9.2% 7.3% 7.4% 8.0% 7.6% 6.8% 5.9% 5.5% 5.1% 2.9% 0.4%
Ben Rosenberg 7.1% 6.7% 7.9% 8.0% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 7.4% 7.2% 6.2% 6.5% 7.3% 5.2% 4.9% 1.3%
Peter Cronin 5.5% 4.5% 5.5% 4.5% 5.1% 5.9% 5.8% 6.6% 5.9% 5.5% 7.4% 9.4% 11.6% 10.8% 5.9%
Matt Hersey 4.3% 4.0% 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 4.8% 4.8% 5.5% 5.5% 6.2% 9.5% 9.4% 10.2% 15.6% 8.2%
Dane Phippen 0.9% 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.6% 1.4% 1.8% 1.3% 2.0% 2.6% 3.3% 3.6% 5.9% 10.4% 61.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.