Race 12A

george-warren-smith

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Mateo Farina 11.7% 11.4% 11.8% 11.1% 8.7% 9.7% 8.1% 7.2% 5.7% 5.4% 3.9% 3.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
Thibault Antonietti 11.1% 10.7% 9.2% 9.4% 9.8% 8.9% 7.2% 6.8% 6.2% 5.9% 5.1% 4.2% 3.3% 1.7% 0.5%
Dylan Ascencios 10.5% 9.6% 8.5% 8.6% 10.3% 7.8% 8.2% 7.2% 7.3% 6.2% 5.6% 4.5% 3.6% 1.6% 0.5%
Thomas Styron 8.5% 8.8% 8.0% 8.4% 8.7% 8.5% 6.9% 7.4% 7.1% 7.0% 6.6% 5.7% 4.2% 3.2% 0.9%
Ben Rosenberg 7.2% 7.3% 7.0% 7.8% 7.2% 7.6% 7.2% 7.9% 7.2% 7.0% 7.8% 6.8% 5.8% 4.6% 1.5%
Libby Redmond 6.5% 7.4% 6.4% 7.8% 6.2% 6.9% 7.0% 7.0% 7.7% 8.6% 8.2% 6.9% 6.0% 5.2% 2.1%
Noah Robitshek 6.0% 6.2% 6.2% 6.4% 5.1% 6.6% 8.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 7.6% 9.6% 7.0% 6.2% 2.9%
Matt Hersey 3.8% 4.0% 4.8% 3.7% 4.5% 5.1% 5.4% 5.5% 6.7% 7.2% 7.3% 9.2% 11.2% 14.5% 7.1%
Charlotte Costikyan 5.0% 5.0% 5.7% 6.0% 6.4% 6.9% 7.4% 7.3% 6.8% 7.0% 6.8% 7.4% 10.7% 7.8% 3.9%
Calvin Lamosse 4.0% 4.0% 4.7% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8% 5.2% 6.6% 5.3% 6.6% 9.6% 9.7% 10.2% 14.1% 5.8%
Peter Cronin 4.2% 4.3% 5.3% 4.9% 5.5% 5.6% 6.2% 6.8% 7.4% 7.1% 7.5% 8.1% 10.6% 11.3% 5.1%
Grant Gridley 9.4% 8.5% 9.4% 8.2% 7.3% 7.7% 7.8% 7.3% 8.2% 7.8% 6.6% 4.8% 3.5% 2.7% 0.8%
Sara Schumann 5.5% 6.1% 6.6% 5.6% 5.5% 5.7% 6.3% 6.9% 7.4% 7.8% 7.8% 8.2% 9.3% 8.0% 3.3%
Patrick Mulcahy 5.7% 5.7% 5.8% 6.2% 8.3% 7.0% 7.2% 7.1% 7.6% 7.2% 6.9% 8.2% 7.2% 7.6% 2.2%
Dane Phippen 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.5% 2.1% 2.2% 2.9% 3.9% 5.2% 10.9% 63.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.