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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.98+6.27vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.29+12.32vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+4.78vs Predicted
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4Harvard University4.17+2.46vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College2.47+8.96vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University4.310.00vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.89+0.63vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+1.75vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.87+2.84vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.58-1.16vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.67+1.88vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin3.31-1.55vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University3.36-3.31vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53-4.73vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63-6.34vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.00-4.64vs Predicted
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17Tufts University3.56-8.03vs Predicted
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18Boston University3.35-8.20vs Predicted
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19University of Pennsylvania1.95-3.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.27Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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14.32Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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7.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.46Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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13.96Eckerd College2.470.0%1st Place
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6.0Roger Williams University4.310.1%1st Place
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7.63Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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9.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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11.84University of Rhode Island2.870.0%1st Place
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8.84Dartmouth College3.580.1%1st Place
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12.88Connecticut College2.670.0%1st Place
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10.45University of Wisconsin3.310.0%1st Place
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9.69Salve Regina University3.360.1%1st Place
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9.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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8.66Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.1%1st Place
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11.36SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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8.97Tufts University3.560.0%1st Place
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9.8Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
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15.06University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Smith | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 15.2% | 21.8% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| John Stokes | 9.6% | 11.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Amy Baxter | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 14.7% | 16.3% |
| Sean Bouchard | 12.8% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Cam Cullman | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Ryan Hughes | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% |
| Edward Glackin | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Max Rollins | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 9.7% |
| Leif Evensen | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Kyle Carney | 5.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Eamon Glackin | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Ted Green | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 4.1% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Matt Johnson | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Christina Johns | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 15.1% | 30.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.