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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.79+1.98vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+7.38vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92+2.05vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.63+1.82vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.16+0.65vs Predicted
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6Fordham University-0.32+3.22vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-0.53vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.24+0.60vs Predicted
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9Fordham University-0.08-1.06vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College-0.52-0.60vs Predicted
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11Fordham University-0.35-2.25vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania-0.50-2.35vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania-0.44-3.75vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.39-4.86vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-1.59-2.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.98Cornell University1.7929.3%1st Place
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9.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.103.3%1st Place
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5.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.9212.2%1st Place
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5.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.638.9%1st Place
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5.65University of Pennsylvania1.1610.0%1st Place
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9.22Fordham University-0.323.2%1st Place
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6.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.298.5%1st Place
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8.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.243.4%1st Place
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7.94Fordham University-0.085.0%1st Place
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9.4SUNY Maritime College-0.522.8%1st Place
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8.75Fordham University-0.354.5%1st Place
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9.65University of Pennsylvania-0.502.2%1st Place
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9.25University of Pennsylvania-0.443.2%1st Place
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9.14SUNY Maritime College-0.392.8%1st Place
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12.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-1.590.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 29.3% | 21.4% | 17.1% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 6.8% |
| Deana Fedulova | 12.2% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sabrina Starck | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Adra Ivancich | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Anna Robertson | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 6.2% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Keelyn Brink | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 4.5% |
| Isabela Hillmann | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 7.8% |
| Lauren Murray | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 3.8% |
| Esme Gonzalez | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 7.8% |
| Sadie Yoder | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 6.6% |
| Nikita Troast | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 6.1% |
| Gentry Schneider | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 46.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.