Race 1A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Carmen Cowles 18.2% 16.0% 15.4% 12.5% 9.8% 7.3% 7.0% 4.7% 4.0% 2.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2%
Brooke Shachoy 8.4% 9.7% 9.6% 8.5% 9.8% 9.2% 9.0% 8.6% 8.5% 6.7% 6.2% 4.1% 1.8%
Alexandra Talbot 4.7% 4.3% 4.1% 4.5% 4.8% 6.2% 6.8% 7.8% 8.4% 8.6% 10.3% 11.8% 17.8%
Lucia Loosbrock 4.8% 5.7% 5.9% 6.2% 7.1% 7.0% 7.6% 8.0% 8.7% 9.4% 11.2% 9.9% 8.5%
Claire Siegel-Wilson 5.5% 5.1% 6.3% 6.8% 7.0% 6.6% 7.8% 9.0% 8.2% 9.8% 9.8% 10.5% 7.6%
Katherine Bennett 5.1% 5.9% 5.5% 6.1% 7.2% 8.9% 8.7% 8.6% 9.3% 9.3% 8.3% 9.5% 7.5%
Emma Shakespeare 4.3% 4.8% 5.0% 5.1% 5.7% 6.2% 7.0% 7.0% 9.2% 9.6% 11.9% 11.7% 12.8%
Dana Haig 8.3% 9.5% 9.4% 8.9% 9.8% 8.8% 8.8% 9.0% 6.6% 7.4% 5.5% 4.8% 3.0%
Marbella Marlo 10.8% 8.6% 8.3% 10.0% 7.8% 9.0% 8.8% 8.8% 8.3% 6.5% 6.2% 4.7% 2.5%
Emily Bornarth 10.6% 11.4% 11.1% 11.9% 10.1% 9.0% 9.6% 8.0% 5.8% 5.8% 3.6% 2.2% 0.9%
Allison Marozza 4.5% 4.0% 4.2% 4.8% 4.5% 5.4% 6.0% 6.7% 8.2% 9.2% 9.5% 13.5% 19.5%
Caroline Bayless 11.6% 10.3% 10.8% 9.6% 10.7% 10.8% 7.0% 8.2% 6.2% 5.9% 5.0% 3.0% 1.1%
AnaLucia Clarkson 3.4% 4.7% 4.2% 5.1% 5.8% 5.5% 5.9% 5.8% 8.6% 9.3% 11.0% 13.9% 16.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.