Race 4A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Marbella Marlo 8.9% 9.0% 11.2% 9.8% 9.4% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 7.4% 7.8% 5.9% 4.3% 1.6%
Dana Haig 9.2% 8.2% 9.2% 9.2% 9.0% 9.2% 8.8% 9.0% 7.2% 6.9% 6.5% 4.6% 2.9%
Caroline Bayless 11.6% 9.4% 10.3% 10.8% 9.1% 9.6% 8.8% 8.6% 6.6% 6.2% 5.0% 2.5% 1.6%
Emma Shakespeare 5.2% 4.9% 5.4% 6.2% 5.1% 6.1% 8.6% 6.9% 9.4% 8.6% 10.8% 11.6% 11.2%
Katherine Bennett 5.7% 6.0% 6.4% 6.9% 6.2% 7.3% 7.6% 8.9% 8.5% 9.2% 10.1% 9.2% 8.1%
Carmen Cowles 17.8% 18.4% 13.1% 11.6% 10.1% 8.5% 6.9% 5.1% 4.0% 2.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Brooke Shachoy 9.5% 9.4% 9.3% 10.4% 10.4% 9.0% 8.5% 8.8% 7.0% 6.2% 4.8% 3.8% 2.9%
AnaLucia Clarkson 3.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.9% 5.5% 6.2% 5.9% 6.7% 8.1% 10.1% 11.1% 13.1% 17.3%
Alexandra Talbot 2.6% 4.5% 3.7% 4.3% 4.9% 6.1% 5.9% 7.2% 9.2% 9.2% 10.3% 14.4% 17.7%
Lucia Loosbrock 5.1% 5.7% 5.2% 6.1% 7.5% 7.0% 8.1% 8.2% 8.3% 9.1% 10.2% 9.8% 9.7%
Claire Siegel-Wilson 5.2% 5.2% 6.0% 5.5% 7.0% 8.3% 8.1% 8.1% 10.1% 9.2% 9.3% 9.4% 8.6%
Emily Bornarth 11.8% 11.1% 11.9% 9.4% 11.2% 8.9% 9.0% 7.6% 7.0% 5.5% 3.4% 2.2% 0.9%
Allison Marozza 4.0% 4.5% 4.2% 5.0% 4.5% 5.8% 5.4% 6.6% 7.2% 9.3% 11.4% 14.7% 17.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.