Race 6A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Claire Siegel-Wilson 6.2% 6.2% 5.8% 6.6% 6.6% 6.5% 8.1% 8.6% 8.8% 9.8% 9.7% 8.9% 8.2%
Emily Bornarth 11.0% 11.6% 12.4% 10.0% 10.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.1% 5.8% 5.5% 4.0% 2.1% 1.1%
Allison Marozza 4.2% 3.8% 4.5% 3.5% 4.7% 5.4% 5.5% 6.1% 7.4% 9.2% 11.7% 15.0% 19.3%
Dana Haig 7.8% 9.5% 8.4% 9.6% 9.1% 9.5% 8.6% 8.9% 8.8% 7.3% 5.9% 4.5% 2.1%
Marbella Marlo 7.9% 8.5% 9.0% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.1% 9.6% 8.7% 7.7% 6.2% 5.3% 2.5%
Katherine Bennett 6.1% 5.9% 7.3% 6.9% 6.5% 7.9% 8.2% 8.4% 8.9% 8.7% 9.5% 7.7% 7.9%
Alexandra Talbot 4.5% 4.2% 3.5% 5.1% 5.7% 5.8% 5.5% 7.9% 7.4% 9.4% 10.7% 12.6% 17.9%
Emma Shakespeare 5.4% 4.8% 5.7% 5.7% 6.0% 6.9% 7.1% 6.8% 8.0% 9.1% 11.1% 12.0% 11.5%
Brooke Shachoy 8.5% 10.1% 9.5% 10.2% 7.6% 9.4% 10.3% 7.8% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 4.3% 2.1%
Carmen Cowles 19.4% 14.6% 13.1% 12.2% 10.3% 9.6% 7.0% 5.3% 3.9% 2.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Lucia Loosbrock 5.3% 5.2% 6.6% 5.9% 7.4% 7.0% 7.8% 7.8% 9.5% 10.3% 9.1% 9.8% 8.2%
AnaLucia Clarkson 3.8% 3.8% 4.0% 5.7% 4.8% 5.7% 6.0% 7.4% 8.6% 8.6% 10.3% 14.0% 17.3%
Caroline Bayless 10.0% 11.9% 10.4% 10.0% 11.8% 8.8% 8.6% 7.3% 6.5% 5.3% 4.7% 2.9% 1.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.