Race 11A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Carmen Cowles 18.1% 17.7% 14.7% 12.4% 9.9% 8.2% 7.2% 3.9% 3.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Brooke Shachoy 9.4% 8.8% 9.8% 8.8% 8.3% 10.7% 8.6% 9.2% 7.6% 7.8% 4.7% 4.2% 2.0%
Alexandra Talbot 3.4% 3.3% 3.5% 4.4% 5.8% 6.1% 6.3% 6.7% 8.1% 9.5% 10.8% 14.0% 18.2%
Dana Haig 8.0% 7.6% 9.2% 9.2% 9.6% 10.1% 9.2% 8.7% 8.6% 8.5% 5.5% 4.2% 1.8%
Emily Bornarth 12.2% 12.1% 11.4% 11.3% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 8.0% 5.9% 5.8% 3.4% 1.8% 0.9%
Emma Shakespeare 5.1% 4.9% 5.2% 6.2% 7.0% 6.5% 6.5% 7.6% 8.0% 9.4% 10.4% 11.2% 11.9%
Allison Marozza 2.8% 2.9% 4.9% 4.0% 5.1% 4.5% 5.5% 7.3% 7.3% 8.9% 11.9% 14.0% 20.9%
Katherine Bennett 5.7% 6.6% 5.9% 7.2% 7.9% 6.8% 7.5% 8.9% 9.6% 8.5% 9.2% 9.6% 6.7%
Lucia Loosbrock 5.7% 4.9% 6.7% 5.4% 7.5% 6.3% 7.9% 7.8% 8.8% 9.7% 10.7% 10.6% 8.1%
Claire Siegel-Wilson 6.7% 6.2% 6.2% 7.4% 5.9% 6.9% 7.8% 7.7% 9.2% 8.3% 10.0% 9.6% 8.1%
Caroline Bayless 10.8% 11.5% 10.3% 10.3% 9.8% 9.2% 8.5% 8.2% 7.3% 5.5% 4.9% 2.6% 1.1%
AnaLucia Clarkson 3.5% 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 5.1% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3% 8.0% 10.0% 11.1% 13.6% 17.1%
Marbella Marlo 8.7% 9.3% 8.0% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% 9.4% 9.7% 8.3% 5.8% 6.3% 3.9% 3.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.