Race 1B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Blaire McCarthy 7.1% 7.5% 7.5% 7.0% 8.5% 8.6% 9.6% 9.4% 9.7% 7.9% 9.0% 5.9% 2.3%
Brooke Schmelz 9.5% 11.3% 9.4% 9.8% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 8.5% 8.6% 6.7% 5.1% 2.1% 0.6%
Cordelia Burn 12.9% 13.2% 12.6% 12.7% 10.2% 10.2% 9.1% 6.7% 5.1% 4.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Emma Cowles 23.0% 18.1% 16.0% 12.3% 9.2% 8.6% 5.9% 3.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Chloe Holder 5.3% 6.0% 7.7% 5.7% 7.4% 7.6% 8.7% 9.3% 10.3% 10.8% 9.6% 7.2% 4.2%
Emma Snead 5.9% 6.6% 6.6% 8.1% 9.2% 8.2% 8.5% 11.2% 10.2% 8.8% 8.2% 5.3% 3.1%
Madison Bashaw 9.6% 9.6% 10.2% 9.5% 10.7% 11.6% 9.4% 8.8% 7.1% 7.8% 2.9% 2.1% 0.7%
Hailey Pemberton 1.9% 2.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.8% 4.5% 4.5% 6.0% 7.4% 9.7% 13.2% 17.4% 21.4%
Meredith Moran 11.1% 10.0% 11.2% 12.3% 9.5% 9.5% 10.3% 8.1% 7.0% 5.3% 3.2% 1.9% 0.5%
Sydney Monahan 6.7% 6.4% 6.0% 7.8% 9.9% 8.5% 8.6% 9.1% 10.2% 9.2% 8.3% 6.2% 2.9%
Ashley Arruda 2.0% 1.6% 2.0% 2.9% 3.2% 3.8% 3.5% 4.8% 6.0% 8.6% 11.8% 17.4% 32.3%
Christiana Scheibner 2.2% 2.9% 3.0% 3.9% 3.8% 4.3% 5.5% 5.9% 8.2% 9.7% 13.0% 17.9% 19.6%
Grace Woodcock 2.8% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.5% 5.4% 7.0% 8.2% 8.5% 10.4% 12.8% 15.7% 12.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.