Race 2B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Brooke Schmelz 9.7% 9.7% 10.2% 10.1% 10.6% 10.4% 9.3% 9.2% 7.5% 6.3% 4.1% 2.2% 0.9%
Chloe Holder 5.5% 5.1% 5.8% 6.6% 7.1% 7.9% 8.6% 8.8% 10.0% 11.4% 10.8% 8.2% 4.2%
Emma Cowles 22.1% 19.6% 15.9% 13.4% 9.3% 7.1% 5.3% 3.1% 2.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Meredith Moran 9.9% 11.7% 10.3% 10.7% 11.5% 10.1% 10.0% 8.2% 6.3% 5.4% 4.1% 1.7% 0.4%
Madison Bashaw 8.8% 10.2% 10.2% 9.8% 10.3% 9.5% 8.9% 9.5% 8.2% 6.9% 4.3% 2.5% 0.7%
Christiana Scheibner 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 3.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 6.2% 7.6% 9.4% 14.1% 17.9% 19.5%
Sydney Monahan 6.6% 6.7% 7.1% 7.6% 8.0% 8.8% 9.2% 9.3% 10.5% 10.5% 8.3% 5.1% 2.1%
Emma Snead 7.0% 6.1% 7.8% 7.6% 8.6% 9.3% 9.5% 10.0% 10.3% 8.7% 7.0% 6.2% 1.8%
Hailey Pemberton 1.9% 2.4% 2.6% 4.1% 3.1% 3.9% 5.5% 5.5% 8.8% 9.8% 12.0% 17.0% 23.4%
Blaire McCarthy 5.7% 6.5% 8.6% 8.6% 7.4% 8.7% 10.4% 10.7% 8.6% 8.5% 7.8% 5.7% 2.9%
Ashley Arruda 1.9% 2.1% 2.5% 2.6% 3.0% 4.2% 4.2% 4.8% 5.8% 8.5% 12.2% 17.3% 30.8%
Cordelia Burn 14.6% 13.5% 11.7% 12.2% 12.0% 10.2% 8.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.8% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2%
Grace Woodcock 3.5% 3.4% 4.5% 3.7% 4.5% 5.5% 6.5% 7.6% 8.8% 10.8% 12.5% 15.4% 13.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.