Race 3B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Hailey Pemberton 2.5% 2.4% 2.9% 3.6% 3.8% 3.8% 4.9% 6.2% 7.0% 9.2% 13.6% 17.6% 22.7%
Cordelia Burn 12.5% 14.6% 11.5% 11.4% 11.2% 11.1% 8.2% 7.0% 6.2% 3.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2%
Meredith Moran 10.8% 9.7% 10.9% 10.4% 11.1% 11.1% 9.4% 8.8% 7.4% 5.9% 3.0% 1.2% 0.2%
Blaire McCarthy 7.3% 6.8% 8.4% 7.4% 7.8% 9.3% 10.4% 9.3% 10.5% 8.6% 7.2% 4.2% 2.5%
Madison Bashaw 9.6% 9.9% 10.0% 10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 8.9% 8.5% 8.2% 7.8% 4.3% 2.1% 0.7%
Brooke Schmelz 10.5% 9.4% 10.1% 10.7% 10.6% 8.6% 9.8% 11.1% 7.0% 5.8% 3.2% 2.5% 0.7%
Emma Snead 6.2% 7.1% 7.1% 8.6% 7.8% 8.5% 9.2% 10.4% 10.6% 9.0% 7.8% 5.7% 2.0%
Emma Cowles 22.4% 20.5% 15.6% 13.1% 10.5% 6.6% 4.5% 3.1% 1.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Sydney Monahan 6.2% 6.7% 7.5% 7.4% 8.2% 8.3% 9.8% 9.9% 9.9% 9.0% 8.1% 5.9% 3.0%
Ashley Arruda 1.5% 1.8% 2.5% 2.5% 3.2% 3.5% 3.9% 4.2% 6.2% 8.2% 12.3% 19.6% 30.4%
Grace Woodcock 3.7% 2.8% 4.5% 4.2% 4.5% 5.4% 6.5% 7.0% 8.2% 11.4% 13.9% 15.2% 12.8%
Christiana Scheibner 2.4% 3.5% 3.0% 3.5% 3.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 8.0% 10.0% 12.7% 17.0% 20.5%
Chloe Holder 4.4% 4.7% 6.1% 7.0% 7.3% 9.2% 9.2% 9.3% 9.1% 10.4% 11.1% 8.0% 4.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.