Race 4B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma Cowles 22.6% 17.6% 16.2% 13.2% 10.3% 8.6% 4.6% 3.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Brooke Schmelz 10.0% 9.3% 10.7% 10.2% 11.2% 9.2% 9.7% 10.1% 7.0% 5.5% 4.3% 1.9% 0.7%
Blaire McCarthy 7.0% 7.1% 7.3% 7.3% 7.8% 9.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.9% 9.2% 8.2% 5.3% 2.8%
Chloe Holder 4.9% 5.7% 6.7% 6.6% 7.0% 7.4% 8.9% 9.4% 10.2% 9.8% 10.8% 7.4% 5.1%
Sydney Monahan 7.0% 7.8% 7.1% 8.0% 8.1% 8.5% 9.3% 9.1% 10.5% 8.6% 7.1% 6.5% 2.2%
Christiana Scheibner 2.5% 2.4% 3.0% 3.7% 4.7% 5.1% 4.5% 4.5% 8.2% 11.9% 14.4% 17.1% 17.9%
Cordelia Burn 12.5% 13.8% 12.2% 11.8% 10.9% 9.2% 8.5% 8.2% 5.9% 4.0% 1.4% 1.5% 0.2%
Emma Snead 6.9% 7.3% 7.9% 7.1% 8.5% 8.3% 9.6% 9.6% 10.0% 9.3% 8.2% 5.1% 2.3%
Grace Woodcock 2.9% 3.9% 4.7% 4.2% 4.2% 5.4% 6.7% 8.4% 7.9% 10.7% 13.3% 15.8% 12.1%
Meredith Moran 11.2% 9.4% 10.3% 10.4% 10.5% 11.1% 9.1% 8.7% 7.1% 5.9% 3.9% 1.9% 0.4%
Ashley Arruda 0.9% 2.1% 1.5% 2.9% 3.0% 3.3% 4.2% 5.5% 6.5% 7.8% 11.2% 18.8% 32.2%
Madison Bashaw 9.0% 11.1% 9.2% 11.3% 10.2% 11.0% 9.7% 8.0% 7.5% 7.3% 3.2% 1.9% 0.7%
Hailey Pemberton 2.7% 2.4% 3.2% 3.1% 3.6% 3.9% 5.7% 5.9% 7.2% 9.0% 13.2% 16.6% 23.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.