Race 5B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma Cowles 23.8% 17.1% 16.7% 12.2% 11.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.5% 1.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Emma Snead 5.5% 7.3% 8.1% 7.2% 8.2% 9.2% 8.9% 9.8% 9.8% 9.7% 8.2% 5.9% 2.2%
Chloe Holder 5.2% 6.2% 7.4% 5.9% 6.9% 7.8% 9.3% 9.8% 9.0% 9.3% 10.5% 8.3% 4.2%
Grace Woodcock 3.4% 3.2% 3.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.5% 5.8% 7.1% 8.4% 10.4% 14.2% 14.5% 14.2%
Sydney Monahan 6.9% 6.0% 7.3% 7.8% 8.5% 8.6% 9.0% 10.0% 11.1% 9.6% 7.3% 5.3% 2.6%
Madison Bashaw 9.7% 10.1% 10.8% 9.8% 11.3% 10.3% 9.6% 8.6% 7.2% 6.1% 3.4% 2.3% 0.8%
Meredith Moran 10.6% 10.7% 10.3% 11.0% 11.8% 10.1% 9.2% 8.3% 6.9% 5.7% 3.3% 1.6% 0.5%
Hailey Pemberton 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 3.5% 3.5% 4.8% 4.8% 6.3% 8.7% 9.4% 13.2% 16.6% 22.4%
Brooke Schmelz 8.8% 9.7% 10.4% 11.1% 9.4% 10.5% 9.6% 9.2% 8.2% 6.0% 3.9% 2.3% 0.9%
Christiana Scheibner 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 4.4% 3.7% 5.3% 5.1% 6.3% 7.6% 10.8% 12.3% 18.4% 17.3%
Cordelia Burn 13.5% 14.8% 10.5% 11.8% 10.2% 9.0% 9.7% 7.2% 5.6% 4.0% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Blaire McCarthy 5.9% 7.4% 7.8% 8.1% 7.6% 8.7% 10.3% 9.1% 10.1% 8.6% 8.1% 6.2% 2.1%
Ashley Arruda 1.8% 2.2% 1.7% 2.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.8% 4.7% 5.9% 9.1% 12.6% 17.5% 32.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.