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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.90+4.09vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.96+6.34vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.16+4.77vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.18+3.84vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.57+1.32vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.27+1.46vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72+2.36vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-2.19vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.41-2.26vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.71-0.57vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.11+0.33vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont3.51-5.43vs Predicted
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13Boston University3.13-5.20vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College2.43-3.74vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo0.75-0.45vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University2.16-4.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.09Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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8.34Connecticut College2.960.1%1st Place
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7.77Harvard University3.160.1%1st Place
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7.84Dartmouth College3.180.0%1st Place
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6.32Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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7.46Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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9.36Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.0%1st Place
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5.81St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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6.74Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.43Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
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11.33Roger Williams University2.110.0%1st Place
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6.57University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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7.8Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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10.26Eckerd College2.430.0%1st Place
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14.55University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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11.31Northeastern University2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Vargas | 14.8% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 1.3% |
| Gram Slattery | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Ian Storck | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Max Nickbarg | 9.7% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Allman | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Joseph Paggi | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 7.2% | 2.8% |
| Bradley Adam | 11.9% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Dan Nickerson | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Charles Nunn | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 2.1% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 22.2% | 9.0% |
| OJ O'Connell | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Cook | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Walker Banks | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 5.3% |
| Rory Mess | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 11.9% | 65.5% |
| Peter Christensen | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 17.4% | 9.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.