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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+6.59vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.57+4.30vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.90+2.24vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.71+5.60vs Predicted
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5Boston University3.13+2.97vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+0.03vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.41+0.03vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.96+0.40vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72+0.32vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.16-2.06vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont3.51-4.35vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.11-0.53vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.16-1.76vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College2.80-5.01vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.27-7.47vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo0.75-1.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.59Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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6.3Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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5.24Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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9.6Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
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7.97Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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6.03St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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7.03Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.4Connecticut College2.960.1%1st Place
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9.32Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.0%1st Place
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7.94Harvard University3.160.1%1st Place
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6.65University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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11.47Roger Williams University2.110.0%1st Place
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11.24Northeastern University2.160.0%1st Place
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8.99Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
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7.53Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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14.68University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Storck | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Max Nickbarg | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Vargas | 13.8% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Charles Nunn | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 3.6% |
| Brendan Cook | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Bradley Adam | 9.6% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Dan Nickerson | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 1.7% |
| Joseph Paggi | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 3.0% |
| Gram Slattery | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| OJ O'Connell | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 14.9% | 20.4% | 10.8% |
| Peter Christensen | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 18.3% | 9.7% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 1.9% |
| Nathan Allman | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Rory Mess | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 13.2% | 64.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.