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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72+8.24vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.27+5.35vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.71+6.42vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.11+7.58vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.16+2.89vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.57+0.46vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.90-1.63vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.51-1.58vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.13-1.12vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-3.96vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.18-3.22vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.41-5.05vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.16-1.72vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College2.80-4.91vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo0.75-0.35vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.96-7.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.24Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.0%1st Place
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7.35Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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9.42Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
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11.58Roger Williams University2.110.0%1st Place
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7.89Harvard University3.160.1%1st Place
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6.46Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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5.37Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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6.42University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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7.88Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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6.04St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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7.78Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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6.95Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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11.28Northeastern University2.160.0%1st Place
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9.09Eckerd College2.800.1%1st Place
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14.65University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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8.61Connecticut College2.960.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Paggi | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 2.9% |
| Nathan Allman | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Charles Nunn | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 2.9% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 20.6% | 12.0% |
| Gram Slattery | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 0.4% |
| Max Nickbarg | 8.2% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Vargas | 13.9% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| OJ O'Connell | 9.1% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Cook | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Bradley Adam | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Ian Storck | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Dan Nickerson | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Peter Christensen | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 13.8% | 17.9% | 9.1% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 2.0% |
| Rory Mess | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 12.1% | 66.7% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.