← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University3.90+4.19vs Predicted
-
2Dartmouth College3.18+5.66vs Predicted
-
3Yale University3.57+3.36vs Predicted
-
4Brown University3.27+3.61vs Predicted
-
5University of Vermont3.51+1.57vs Predicted
-
6Tufts University3.41+1.03vs Predicted
-
7Connecticut College2.96+1.68vs Predicted
-
8Washington College2.71+1.31vs Predicted
-
9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72+0.31vs Predicted
-
10Boston University3.13-1.98vs Predicted
-
11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-5.06vs Predicted
-
12Eckerd College2.80-2.92vs Predicted
-
13Roger Williams University2.11-1.58vs Predicted
-
14Harvard University3.16-6.32vs Predicted
-
15Northeastern University2.16-3.53vs Predicted
-
16University of Buffalo0.75-1.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.19Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
-
7.66Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
-
6.36Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
-
7.61Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
-
6.57University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
-
7.03Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
-
8.68Connecticut College2.960.1%1st Place
-
9.31Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
-
9.31Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.0%1st Place
-
8.02Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
-
5.94St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
-
9.08Eckerd College2.800.1%1st Place
-
11.42Roger Williams University2.110.0%1st Place
-
7.68Harvard University3.160.1%1st Place
-
11.47Northeastern University2.160.0%1st Place
-
14.66University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Vargas | 13.8% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Storck | 5.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Max Nickbarg | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Allman | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| OJ O'Connell | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Dan Nickerson | 7.5% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 1.6% |
| Charles Nunn | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 2.4% |
| Joseph Paggi | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 3.0% |
| Brendan Cook | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% |
| Bradley Adam | 12.3% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 19.1% | 10.4% |
| Gram Slattery | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Peter Christensen | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 19.0% | 10.1% |
| Rory Mess | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 12.3% | 65.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.