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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.41+5.79vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.27+5.37vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.18+4.75vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.90+1.40vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.57+1.44vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+0.08vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72+2.47vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.16-0.27vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.16+2.24vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College2.96-1.34vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.11+0.40vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.71-2.58vs Predicted
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13University of Buffalo0.75+1.59vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont3.51-7.62vs Predicted
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15Boston University3.13-6.96vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College2.80-6.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.79Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.37Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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7.75Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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5.4Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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6.44Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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6.08St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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9.47Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.1%1st Place
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7.73Harvard University3.160.1%1st Place
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11.24Northeastern University2.160.0%1st Place
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8.66Connecticut College2.960.1%1st Place
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11.4Roger Williams University2.110.0%1st Place
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9.42Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
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14.59University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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6.38University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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8.04Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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9.23Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Nickerson | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Allman | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Ian Storck | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Mateo Vargas | 12.2% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Max Nickbarg | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Adam | 8.9% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Joseph Paggi | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% |
| Gram Slattery | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| Peter Christensen | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 18.3% | 9.7% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 1.1% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 13.1% | 20.4% | 12.1% |
| Charles Nunn | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 4.0% |
| Rory Mess | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 12.6% | 63.6% |
| OJ O'Connell | 9.9% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Brendan Cook | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 0.4% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.