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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.16+6.84vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.13+5.97vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.90+2.34vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.41+3.18vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+1.15vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.27+1.68vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.18+0.98vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.57-1.63vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College2.80+0.20vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College2.96-1.23vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont3.51-4.28vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.11-0.48vs Predicted
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13University of Buffalo0.75+1.65vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.71-4.56vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27-7.36vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University2.16-4.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.84Harvard University3.160.1%1st Place
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7.97Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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5.34Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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7.18Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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7.68Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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7.98Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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6.37Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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9.2Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
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8.77Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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6.72University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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11.52Roger Williams University2.110.0%1st Place
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14.65University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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9.44Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
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7.64Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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11.56Northeastern University2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gram Slattery | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Brendan Cook | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 13.5% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Dan Nickerson | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Bradley Adam | 9.8% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Allman | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Ian Storck | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Max Nickbarg | 10.4% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 4.9% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 1.5% |
| OJ O'Connell | 10.0% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 22.0% | 11.4% |
| Rory Mess | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 12.1% | 65.1% |
| Charles Nunn | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 3.1% |
| David Larson | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Peter Christensen | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 17.9% | 11.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.