Race 10B

stu-nelson

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma Cowles 23.3% 19.1% 16.1% 13.2% 9.3% 7.9% 5.5% 2.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Emma Snead 5.3% 6.5% 7.4% 8.2% 8.3% 8.6% 10.2% 10.1% 10.8% 8.7% 7.8% 5.1% 2.9%
Cordelia Burn 13.2% 13.4% 13.0% 12.0% 9.8% 10.0% 9.2% 7.6% 4.9% 4.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1%
Madison Bashaw 9.1% 9.7% 10.6% 11.5% 9.2% 10.6% 9.8% 8.0% 7.7% 5.9% 4.5% 2.7% 0.9%
Meredith Moran 11.3% 11.1% 10.8% 10.7% 11.9% 9.7% 8.1% 7.8% 7.8% 5.1% 3.2% 1.8% 0.7%
Blaire McCarthy 6.3% 7.0% 7.1% 6.9% 9.4% 8.5% 9.3% 9.7% 9.8% 10.2% 8.2% 4.6% 2.8%
Sydney Monahan 6.4% 6.6% 6.1% 7.2% 8.7% 10.2% 7.8% 10.4% 10.5% 8.8% 8.2% 6.2% 2.9%
Chloe Holder 5.2% 4.9% 6.4% 6.1% 7.0% 8.1% 9.4% 8.6% 10.1% 10.1% 10.3% 8.3% 5.5%
Grace Woodcock 3.9% 3.1% 4.0% 4.2% 5.5% 4.6% 6.0% 7.5% 8.8% 10.8% 13.6% 15.1% 13.0%
Brooke Schmelz 9.8% 10.9% 9.4% 10.5% 10.3% 9.3% 10.2% 10.2% 7.0% 5.8% 3.9% 2.1% 0.5%
Hailey Pemberton 2.5% 2.4% 2.9% 2.8% 3.6% 5.0% 5.4% 5.5% 6.9% 11.3% 12.6% 18.0% 21.3%
Christiana Scheibner 2.0% 3.2% 3.2% 4.1% 3.9% 4.5% 4.9% 6.2% 8.4% 10.1% 14.6% 17.7% 17.2%
Ashley Arruda 1.7% 2.4% 2.9% 2.7% 3.0% 3.1% 4.2% 5.5% 5.5% 8.6% 10.8% 17.4% 32.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.