Race 11B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma Cowles 22.0% 19.4% 13.6% 14.4% 9.9% 7.9% 5.3% 3.7% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Meredith Moran 10.8% 11.3% 11.4% 11.2% 10.4% 8.8% 9.7% 8.1% 6.9% 4.7% 4.2% 1.8% 0.8%
Cordelia Burn 12.7% 14.7% 12.0% 11.2% 10.1% 9.7% 9.0% 7.8% 5.9% 3.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Brooke Schmelz 9.9% 8.6% 11.2% 10.3% 10.3% 10.5% 9.4% 8.8% 7.3% 6.6% 4.2% 2.5% 0.3%
Madison Bashaw 9.0% 10.7% 9.9% 10.4% 10.6% 10.2% 8.8% 8.6% 7.3% 7.4% 4.0% 2.1% 0.8%
Chloe Holder 4.7% 5.5% 5.5% 7.8% 6.5% 8.2% 8.3% 9.3% 10.6% 10.5% 10.5% 8.0% 4.4%
Blaire McCarthy 7.5% 6.2% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 9.4% 9.1% 8.7% 10.8% 8.8% 8.6% 5.5% 2.1%
Ashley Arruda 1.6% 2.1% 2.2% 2.8% 3.4% 3.4% 4.0% 5.5% 7.2% 7.6% 12.2% 16.7% 31.2%
Christiana Scheibner 2.2% 3.1% 3.4% 2.9% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 6.2% 7.8% 10.0% 12.5% 17.9% 19.6%
Grace Woodcock 3.3% 3.2% 3.6% 3.4% 4.5% 6.2% 6.6% 6.6% 8.7% 11.6% 14.1% 14.9% 13.2%
Sydney Monahan 6.6% 6.7% 8.9% 7.0% 9.8% 7.5% 9.1% 9.8% 10.2% 9.5% 7.1% 5.2% 2.6%
Emma Snead 7.5% 6.6% 7.5% 7.8% 8.8% 8.8% 10.7% 9.7% 8.5% 9.0% 7.2% 5.5% 2.3%
Hailey Pemberton 2.2% 2.0% 2.9% 2.8% 3.8% 4.4% 4.5% 7.1% 7.0% 9.4% 12.8% 18.6% 22.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.