Race 12B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Brooke Schmelz 9.7% 10.1% 10.2% 9.2% 10.5% 10.8% 10.8% 9.3% 7.2% 5.1% 4.2% 2.0% 0.8%
Cordelia Burn 13.4% 13.1% 11.5% 12.3% 11.2% 10.5% 8.3% 7.5% 5.8% 3.2% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3%
Meredith Moran 11.2% 9.8% 11.6% 10.7% 10.1% 10.1% 8.9% 8.6% 6.9% 6.0% 4.3% 1.7% 0.4%
Emma Cowles 22.9% 19.6% 15.2% 13.2% 10.1% 7.6% 5.0% 3.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Blaire McCarthy 6.1% 7.6% 8.2% 7.9% 9.0% 9.3% 9.4% 9.4% 9.6% 9.8% 7.0% 4.5% 2.1%
Madison Bashaw 9.2% 9.3% 10.9% 9.8% 10.2% 9.2% 10.1% 10.1% 8.0% 6.3% 4.2% 2.2% 0.5%
Christiana Scheibner 2.2% 2.9% 3.0% 3.7% 3.7% 3.8% 5.4% 6.7% 8.8% 9.8% 14.8% 17.2% 18.0%
Sydney Monahan 5.8% 8.0% 7.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 9.4% 10.3% 9.2% 8.6% 8.3% 5.7% 2.5%
Grace Woodcock 3.1% 3.5% 3.8% 4.0% 5.0% 5.7% 6.9% 6.6% 9.4% 11.8% 11.9% 15.2% 13.2%
Hailey Pemberton 3.1% 2.3% 2.5% 3.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 5.7% 8.5% 9.9% 12.3% 17.7% 22.5%
Chloe Holder 5.0% 6.3% 5.7% 6.7% 7.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.5% 10.4% 10.4% 10.5% 8.3% 4.6%
Emma Snead 6.3% 6.4% 8.1% 8.3% 8.2% 8.6% 8.7% 10.3% 9.1% 10.3% 7.6% 5.6% 2.2%
Ashley Arruda 1.9% 1.3% 2.1% 2.6% 2.8% 3.7% 4.5% 4.0% 5.7% 7.5% 12.2% 18.9% 32.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.