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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.90+4.28vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.41+4.94vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.57+3.46vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.16+4.15vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont3.51+1.73vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27+1.67vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.13+1.17vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.71+1.41vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-2.97vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.27-2.36vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.18-3.11vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College2.80-2.75vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.96-4.34vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.11-2.50vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo0.75-0.35vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University2.16-4.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.28Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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6.94Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.46Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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8.15Harvard University3.160.1%1st Place
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6.73University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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7.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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8.17Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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9.41Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
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6.03St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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7.64Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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7.89Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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9.25Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
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8.66Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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11.5Roger Williams University2.110.0%1st Place
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14.65University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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11.56Northeastern University2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Vargas | 13.7% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Dan Nickerson | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Max Nickbarg | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Gram Slattery | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| OJ O'Connell | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| David Larson | 6.3% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Brendan Cook | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Charles Nunn | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 2.7% |
| Bradley Adam | 10.8% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Allman | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Ian Storck | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 2.0% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 19.7% | 11.3% |
| Rory Mess | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 12.7% | 66.6% |
| Peter Christensen | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 14.8% | 19.5% | 10.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.