Race 4C

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Mia Nicolosi 35.5% 23.8% 16.4% 10.9% 6.2% 3.8% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brielle Willoughby 15.8% 17.1% 16.7% 14.0% 12.3% 7.4% 6.6% 5.0% 2.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1%
Annie Buelt 7.3% 9.0% 8.4% 9.6% 11.8% 10.7% 9.2% 9.1% 6.9% 6.4% 5.9% 3.6% 2.2%
Annika Fedde 5.5% 5.9% 9.0% 8.5% 8.2% 9.8% 10.4% 9.2% 10.3% 8.2% 7.1% 4.8% 2.8%
Julia Wyatt 6.0% 7.2% 8.6% 9.7% 9.4% 10.2% 9.4% 9.2% 9.0% 7.6% 6.4% 4.7% 2.5%
Lily Flack 3.8% 5.2% 4.5% 6.0% 6.2% 8.3% 9.4% 9.6% 10.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.9% 8.5%
Aili Moffet 4.4% 4.9% 5.8% 6.6% 7.3% 7.3% 8.6% 9.3% 9.6% 9.3% 8.8% 10.1% 8.0%
Mary McLauchlin 3.6% 5.1% 5.5% 5.8% 5.7% 8.0% 7.3% 8.5% 9.2% 10.2% 11.0% 10.5% 9.8%
Luciana Solorzano 2.4% 2.9% 2.8% 5.1% 4.2% 5.7% 5.3% 5.9% 7.4% 8.6% 10.1% 14.6% 25.2%
Caylin Schnoor 3.6% 4.8% 5.5% 6.7% 6.3% 7.5% 8.0% 7.5% 9.4% 11.4% 10.4% 10.9% 7.9%
Lucija Ruzevic 5.1% 5.9% 7.2% 7.6% 10.9% 8.5% 10.2% 9.6% 9.2% 9.0% 8.2% 5.2% 3.4%
Lauren Krim 2.6% 3.8% 3.6% 4.2% 4.3% 4.7% 5.7% 7.2% 7.5% 8.9% 11.2% 15.1% 21.2%
Sophia Montgomery 4.2% 4.5% 5.9% 5.5% 6.9% 8.1% 7.7% 9.2% 8.3% 9.7% 11.2% 10.1% 8.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.