Race 5C

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Annie Buelt 5.3% 7.6% 10.1% 10.3% 10.1% 10.1% 10.8% 8.6% 7.7% 7.6% 6.2% 3.6% 1.9%
Mia Nicolosi 35.5% 23.6% 16.0% 11.8% 5.9% 3.9% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brielle Willoughby 17.4% 16.4% 14.5% 15.0% 11.1% 9.6% 6.6% 4.5% 2.1% 1.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Aili Moffet 4.0% 4.5% 6.6% 6.6% 7.7% 7.7% 7.8% 10.5% 7.7% 11.1% 9.8% 8.2% 7.8%
Lily Flack 3.8% 4.8% 5.7% 5.6% 6.3% 7.0% 8.0% 8.5% 9.8% 10.7% 10.3% 10.2% 9.2%
Annika Fedde 6.4% 7.0% 7.6% 9.8% 8.9% 9.3% 9.3% 9.1% 9.3% 7.3% 6.9% 5.7% 3.2%
Julia Wyatt 6.4% 7.3% 7.4% 8.7% 10.2% 9.9% 9.3% 9.6% 9.5% 8.0% 7.7% 3.9% 2.1%
Caylin Schnoor 3.8% 4.5% 6.2% 5.3% 7.6% 7.7% 8.4% 9.2% 7.8% 9.3% 11.2% 10.5% 8.3%
Lucija Ruzevic 5.3% 7.6% 7.7% 8.3% 8.8% 9.3% 9.8% 8.7% 10.2% 8.2% 6.7% 5.9% 3.5%
Mary McLauchlin 3.8% 5.1% 5.5% 4.7% 6.7% 6.5% 8.7% 7.6% 9.1% 9.2% 10.0% 13.4% 9.8%
Lauren Krim 2.1% 2.5% 3.8% 4.2% 5.3% 5.5% 5.3% 7.5% 8.6% 10.1% 10.3% 13.2% 21.6%
Luciana Solorzano 2.1% 3.4% 2.7% 3.5% 4.6% 5.2% 5.6% 6.8% 8.8% 7.7% 11.1% 15.1% 23.4%
Sophia Montgomery 4.0% 5.7% 6.2% 6.3% 6.8% 8.2% 8.1% 8.6% 9.0% 9.0% 8.6% 10.2% 9.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.