Race 6C

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Mia Nicolosi 34.0% 23.4% 16.1% 12.3% 6.7% 3.4% 2.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Lily Flack 4.2% 4.2% 5.4% 6.2% 7.2% 6.9% 8.6% 9.2% 9.4% 10.4% 10.1% 10.7% 7.4%
Annie Buelt 7.3% 8.6% 10.0% 9.0% 9.2% 11.1% 9.4% 9.2% 8.2% 6.1% 5.6% 4.3% 1.8%
Mary McLauchlin 3.5% 3.9% 5.1% 6.2% 5.9% 8.3% 7.4% 8.2% 9.0% 10.7% 11.3% 9.4% 11.3%
Julia Wyatt 6.5% 7.4% 7.8% 9.4% 9.7% 9.9% 10.8% 9.0% 8.6% 6.8% 5.4% 5.7% 3.1%
Brielle Willoughby 17.2% 16.2% 16.7% 14.1% 11.2% 8.6% 6.3% 4.1% 2.8% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Lucija Ruzevic 5.5% 6.0% 7.5% 8.2% 9.8% 9.0% 9.2% 9.2% 9.8% 8.6% 8.3% 5.4% 3.5%
Caylin Schnoor 3.8% 5.1% 5.6% 6.1% 6.7% 8.3% 7.8% 9.6% 8.4% 10.8% 10.2% 9.6% 8.2%
Annika Fedde 5.3% 7.1% 8.1% 8.5% 8.8% 9.4% 10.1% 9.5% 8.7% 7.8% 8.2% 5.7% 2.9%
Lauren Krim 1.8% 3.5% 3.7% 4.2% 4.7% 6.0% 5.5% 7.1% 9.0% 9.2% 10.8% 13.5% 20.9%
Luciana Solorzano 2.1% 3.5% 3.1% 4.1% 4.3% 4.9% 5.0% 7.0% 7.4% 7.5% 10.8% 15.7% 24.4%
Aili Moffet 4.1% 5.9% 5.9% 6.5% 8.7% 8.1% 9.2% 8.0% 8.4% 9.9% 8.3% 9.4% 7.8%
Sophia Montgomery 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 7.2% 6.1% 8.2% 9.1% 9.9% 10.4% 10.2% 10.2% 8.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.