Race 11C

stu-nelson

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Mia Nicolosi 33.2% 24.1% 17.0% 10.8% 6.9% 4.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Aili Moffet 4.2% 5.2% 6.1% 7.1% 7.4% 7.1% 8.5% 8.6% 8.6% 9.8% 9.4% 9.2% 8.6%
Brielle Willoughby 15.1% 16.4% 17.2% 14.5% 12.8% 8.0% 5.6% 4.5% 2.9% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Lily Flack 4.5% 4.5% 5.0% 6.6% 7.5% 6.9% 9.3% 7.8% 9.4% 10.7% 10.2% 10.1% 7.6%
Annika Fedde 6.3% 7.8% 8.1% 8.1% 8.3% 10.3% 9.4% 8.2% 8.8% 9.0% 7.2% 5.0% 3.4%
Annie Buelt 7.5% 8.9% 9.4% 9.3% 9.8% 10.2% 9.8% 9.2% 8.3% 6.6% 4.8% 4.0% 1.9%
Caylin Schnoor 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 7.5% 6.8% 8.8% 7.8% 9.0% 9.4% 9.9% 10.4% 9.2% 7.8%
Lauren Krim 3.4% 3.0% 3.1% 3.5% 4.5% 5.0% 6.8% 6.7% 8.3% 9.1% 9.9% 14.9% 21.8%
Luciana Solorzano 2.4% 3.0% 3.8% 3.5% 4.2% 5.2% 5.7% 7.0% 6.5% 9.0% 12.2% 14.0% 23.5%
Lucija Ruzevic 6.0% 6.9% 6.6% 9.0% 7.7% 9.0% 11.3% 11.1% 8.4% 8.2% 6.6% 5.5% 3.8%
Mary McLauchlin 3.9% 4.7% 4.7% 5.3% 6.4% 8.1% 7.5% 8.0% 9.4% 9.0% 11.1% 12.3% 9.8%
Julia Wyatt 5.7% 6.9% 8.2% 8.1% 10.3% 9.8% 8.9% 10.2% 9.4% 8.4% 6.7% 4.7% 2.8%
Sophia Montgomery 4.5% 4.2% 5.5% 6.7% 7.2% 7.6% 7.1% 8.6% 9.9% 8.5% 10.5% 10.7% 9.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.