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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.45+4.84vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.59+3.56vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.05+1.34vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.90+0.76vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.39-1.41vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.63+2.54vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.87+0.80vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.83-0.25vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.45-3.07vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.24-0.29vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute0.84-0.19vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology0.46-0.12vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy1.14-3.01vs Predicted
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14Williams College-0.03-0.96vs Predicted
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15Columbia University0.11-2.09vs Predicted
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16Drexel University-0.19-2.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.84SUNY Maritime College2.450.1%1st Place
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5.56Connecticut College2.590.1%1st Place
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4.34Brown University3.050.2%1st Place
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4.76University of Vermont2.900.1%1st Place
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3.59Dartmouth College3.390.2%1st Place
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8.54George Washington University1.630.0%1st Place
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7.8Fordham University1.870.1%1st Place
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7.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.830.0%1st Place
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5.93Yale University2.450.1%1st Place
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9.71Cornell University1.240.0%1st Place
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10.81Webb Institute0.840.0%1st Place
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11.88Rochester Institute of Technology0.460.0%1st Place
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9.99U. S. Military Academy1.140.0%1st Place
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13.04Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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12.91Columbia University0.110.0%1st Place
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13.55Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Wilkinson | 8.2% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 9.3% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Drew Shea | 17.5% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Crary | 13.0% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Johnstone | 21.8% | 18.0% | 17.0% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjaim Helfand | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Anders Ekholm | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Britton | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Anderson | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Gatto | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| Parker Lyman | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 5.3% |
| Skylar Munger | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 12.9% |
| Matthew Schmitt | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 2.5% |
| Jorge Castro | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 11.7% | 15.1% | 17.6% | 24.8% |
| Elizabeth Siegal | 0.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 14.9% | 20.1% | 21.5% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 20.8% | 31.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.