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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.90+5.29vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College1.95+7.59vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.93+3.43vs Predicted
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4Cornell University0.82+10.09vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.01+1.36vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.66+5.15vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.59+3.93vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.51+0.18vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.10+2.52vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.79-1.23vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.42-1.30vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.57-0.86vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65-5.53vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida0.90-0.14vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.85-8.01vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston2.23-7.32vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.57-4.52vs Predicted
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18Harvard University2.31-10.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.29Dartmouth College2.9010.8%1st Place
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9.59Connecticut College1.955.0%1st Place
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6.43Stanford University2.939.8%1st Place
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14.09Cornell University0.820.8%1st Place
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6.36U. S. Naval Academy3.0110.2%1st Place
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11.15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.662.9%1st Place
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10.93University of Pennsylvania1.593.8%1st Place
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8.18SUNY Maritime College2.517.0%1st Place
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11.52University of Rhode Island2.103.0%1st Place
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8.77Boston University1.795.9%1st Place
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9.7Roger Williams University2.424.5%1st Place
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11.14Fordham University1.573.5%1st Place
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7.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.657.1%1st Place
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13.86University of South Florida0.901.6%1st Place
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6.99Brown University2.857.9%1st Place
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8.68College of Charleston2.235.7%1st Place
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12.48University of Michigan1.572.4%1st Place
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7.39Harvard University2.318.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bragg | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Walter Henry | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
| Jack Parkin | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Seth Rizika | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 16.4% | 26.7% |
| JC Hermus | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| John Ped | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 5.5% |
| Benton Amthor | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Aidan naughton | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Spencer Cartwright | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 5.7% |
| Leo Boucher | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 11.4% | 14.8% | 26.2% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Brandon Geller | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Jenna Probst | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 12.3% |
| Henry Burnes | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.