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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.74+2.39vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.85+3.41vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.97+2.25vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.61+2.37vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.50+1.78vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.74+0.03vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.67-1.13vs Predicted
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8Colgate University1.10+2.45vs Predicted
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9Hampton University2.11-1.16vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.93-4.59vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.69+0.64vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.49-2.43vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.30-3.06vs Predicted
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14Queen's University0.87-2.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.39U. S. Naval Academy3.740.3%1st Place
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5.41Cornell University2.850.1%1st Place
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5.25Old Dominion University2.970.1%1st Place
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6.37Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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6.78St. Mary's College of Maryland2.500.1%1st Place
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6.03Georgetown University2.740.1%1st Place
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5.87George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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10.45Colgate University1.100.0%1st Place
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7.84Hampton University2.110.1%1st Place
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5.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.930.1%1st Place
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11.64University of Rochester0.690.0%1st Place
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9.57University of Pennsylvania1.490.0%1st Place
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9.94Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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11.03Queen's University0.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Hall | 26.2% | 18.8% | 16.5% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 9.9% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Andrea Luna | 10.5% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Marissa Golison | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Hannah McNomee | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Sara Klik | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 14.4% | 17.8% | 19.0% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Arielle DeLisser | 9.9% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Danielle Sookiasian | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 18.1% | 34.9% |
| Caroline Garth | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 12.7% | 8.3% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 17.7% | 9.9% |
| Linor Berezin | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 21.0% | 23.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.