← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
6
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+1.48vs Predicted
-
2SUNY Maritime College0.50+2.02vs Predicted
-
3Fordham University1.54+0.19vs Predicted
-
4Cornell University0.41-0.03vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.64-1.01vs Predicted
-
6University of Pennsylvania1.04-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1331.8%1st Place
-
4.02SUNY Maritime College0.5010.8%1st Place
-
3.19Fordham University1.5419.1%1st Place
-
3.97Cornell University0.419.7%1st Place
-
3.99U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.6411.5%1st Place
-
3.34University of Pennsylvania1.0417.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 31.8% | 25.9% | 19.4% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 10.8% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 17.8% | 20.8% | 25.3% |
| Lucas Thress | 19.1% | 19.7% | 18.8% | 18.1% | 13.8% | 10.5% |
| Matthew Schmitt | 9.7% | 13.0% | 15.3% | 18.0% | 20.5% | 23.5% |
| Calvin Marsh | 11.5% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 15.2% | 20.6% | 26.1% |
| Ian Fox | 17.1% | 16.8% | 19.6% | 19.1% | 16.6% | 10.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.