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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.74+4.38vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+1.86vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.69+3.22vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.05-1.37vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.69+1.84vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.54+0.37vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College0.78-0.27vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05+2.21vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.42-2.71vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.01-2.36vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.56-2.35vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin0.16-2.41vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy-0.34-2.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.38Boston College1.749.4%1st Place
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3.86U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3217.2%1st Place
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6.22Roger Williams University1.696.2%1st Place
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2.63Harvard University3.0532.5%1st Place
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6.84Northeastern University1.695.9%1st Place
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6.37Tufts University1.546.3%1st Place
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6.73Bowdoin College0.785.5%1st Place
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10.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.051.0%1st Place
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6.29University of Rhode Island1.426.4%1st Place
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7.64Boston University1.014.0%1st Place
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8.65University of Vermont0.562.9%1st Place
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9.59University of Wisconsin0.161.8%1st Place
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10.6Maine Maritime Academy-0.340.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Budington | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 17.2% | 16.4% | 16.7% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Walton | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 32.5% | 25.8% | 15.9% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Bryan Trammell | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Teagan Cunningham | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 19.2% | 27.0% |
| Henry Lee | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Nathan Selian | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 4.3% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 15.4% | 13.4% | 8.3% |
| William Davis | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 18.4% | 18.9% |
| Olivia Mitchell | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 20.5% | 34.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.