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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.46+4.23vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+1.09vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.58+1.86vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles0.94-0.06vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.14+4.26vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-0.19+0.74vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47+0.58vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69+0.08vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.23-2.25vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-0.25-3.12vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-5.47vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.67-1.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.23University of Washington0.469.4%1st Place
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3.09University of California at Santa Barbara1.3526.8%1st Place
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4.86University of California at Berkeley0.5811.7%1st Place
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3.94University of California at Los Angeles0.9416.7%1st Place
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9.26Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.141.4%1st Place
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6.74University of California at Davis-0.196.2%1st Place
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7.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.473.4%1st Place
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8.08University of California at Santa Cruz-0.693.4%1st Place
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6.75University of California at Los Angeles-0.235.5%1st Place
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6.88University of Washington-0.255.5%1st Place
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5.53Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.278.9%1st Place
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10.06Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.671.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zackery Martin | 9.4% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Jasper Reid | 26.8% | 21.6% | 16.1% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 11.7% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Drew Wolf | 16.7% | 16.4% | 16.0% | 14.8% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack Kelly | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 21.8% | 25.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 3.5% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 7.4% |
| Marcus Leitner | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 16.2% | 10.2% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 3.5% |
| Henry Stier | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 3.9% |
| Samuel Groom | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Adriana Yarkin | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 17.3% | 44.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.