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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.46+4.22vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+1.18vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.58+1.75vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+2.87vs Predicted
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5University of Washington-0.25+1.92vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69+2.04vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-1.41vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47-0.60vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.67+1.04vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles0.94-6.12vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.19-4.12vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.14-2.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.22University of Washington0.4610.2%1st Place
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3.18University of California at Santa Barbara1.3524.9%1st Place
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4.75University of California at Berkeley0.5812.2%1st Place
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6.87University of California at Los Angeles-0.235.5%1st Place
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6.92University of Washington-0.254.9%1st Place
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8.04University of California at Santa Cruz-0.693.5%1st Place
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5.59Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.278.4%1st Place
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7.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.474.5%1st Place
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10.04Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.671.4%1st Place
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3.88University of California at Los Angeles0.9417.2%1st Place
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6.88University of California at Davis-0.195.4%1st Place
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9.22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.142.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
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Zackery Martin | 10.2% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
Jasper Reid | 24.9% | 21.6% | 15.8% | 14.2% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Michael McCulloch | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
Jacob Matiyevsky | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 4.2% |
Henry Stier | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 4.0% |
Marcus Leitner | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 15.1% | 16.7% | 10.0% |
Samuel Groom | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
Ximena Greatorex | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 6.8% |
Adriana Yarkin | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 17.0% | 44.9% |
Drew Wolf | 17.2% | 15.7% | 17.2% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Nathaniel Holden | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 7.8% | 4.2% |
Jack Kelly | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 22.7% | 24.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.