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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+2.16vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.94+2.08vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+3.79vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47+3.36vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.46+0.21vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.58-1.17vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-0.19-0.18vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-2.41vs Predicted
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9University of Washington-0.25-2.17vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69-2.01vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.67-0.93vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.14-2.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.16University of California at Santa Barbara1.3524.9%1st Place
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4.08University of California at Los Angeles0.9416.6%1st Place
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6.79University of California at Los Angeles-0.235.2%1st Place
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7.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.474.4%1st Place
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5.21University of Washington0.4611.2%1st Place
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4.83University of California at Berkeley0.5812.2%1st Place
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6.82University of California at Davis-0.195.2%1st Place
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5.59Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.278.3%1st Place
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6.83University of Washington-0.255.8%1st Place
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7.99University of California at Santa Cruz-0.693.2%1st Place
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10.07Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.671.3%1st Place
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9.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.141.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Reid | 24.9% | 21.6% | 17.1% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Drew Wolf | 16.6% | 15.4% | 14.9% | 13.9% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 4.2% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 5.7% |
| Zackery Martin | 11.2% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Michael McCulloch | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 4.5% |
| Samuel Groom | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Henry Stier | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 3.3% |
| Marcus Leitner | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 16.4% | 9.8% |
| Adriana Yarkin | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 17.1% | 45.8% |
| Jack Kelly | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 22.1% | 25.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.